BITCOIN WEEKLY REGIME COMPASS | Week 1 | When execution is live, but time replaces urgency
December 29, 2025 – January 04, 2026 | Normalisation Window
“Markets don’t reprice when structure improves.
They reprice when ignoring it becomes irresponsible.”
BITCOIN COHERENCE LEDGER | BITCOIN REGIME COMPASS
WEEKLY COMPASS — Week 1
December 29, 2025 – January 04, 2026 | Normalisation Window
Florian Jumel
How to read this Compass
What follows is not just a forecast.
It is a structural navigation map, built from:
liquidity conditions
regulatory and execution rails
macro transmission
derivatives pressure
behavioural positioning
calendar and geopolitical constraints
This Compass is written in two parts:
Part 1 — Free Reader
Weekly orientation, structure, probabilities, behavioural guidance
Part 2 — Professional / Advanced
Execution engine, macro transmission depth, derivatives, calendar layer, geopolitics, operator perspective and risk triggers
PART 1 FREE READER
What Really Matters This Week
This week is not defined by a headline.
It is defined by what continues to hold when attention disappears.
Over the past two weeks:
execution rails went live (OCC)
regulatory continuity held (CFTC)
the Fed cut rates but did not stimulate
Bitcoin held its repaired structure
volatility stayed contained
allocation remained discretionary
Now the market enters a different phase:
The Normalisation Window.
This is where systems stop reacting
and start behaving.
At the same time:
Bitcoin trades roughly 89k–95k
ETF flows remain selective, not directional
derivatives suppress momentum
macro is tolerant, not supportive
nation-state accumulation continues quietly
holiday liquidity is thin, but stable
Nothing forces urgency.
That is the point.
Where Bitcoin Actually Stands
Current structure
Active range: 88k–95k
Acceptance gate: 95k–98k
Primary demand: 82k–88k
Structural invalidation: weekly close <80k
Interpretation
Bitcoin is no longer repairing damage.
It is no longer proving legitimacy.
It is proving durability.
Price is not front-running adoption.
It is waiting for habit formation.
This is not euphoria.
This is post-integration normality.
Why This Week Feels Flat And Why That’s Structural
The lack of excitement is not absence of signal.
It is the signal.
Infrastructure creates capacity, not emotion.
Markets trend when time pressure forces allocation.
Right now:
Permission ✔
Execution ✔
Allocation ✖
Urgency ✖
Markets do not reprice capacity.
They reprice inevitability.
That threshold is not crossed by news.
It is crossed by repetition.
The Most Likely Weekly Path
Scenario Matrix (7 days)
Base case ██████████░░ 58 % → 88k–97k compression
Upside attempt █████░░░░░░ 23 % → 98k–105k test
Downside sweep ████░░░░░░░ 19 % → 78k–82k controlled test
Base case
Time dominates. Low participation. Structure holds.
Upside attempt requires:
DXY < 98
yields not re-accelerating
multi-day positive ETF flows (>300–500m)
Downside sweep triggered by:
dollar surge
yield spike
clustered ETF outflows (not single events)
Compression is not indecision.
It is system evaluation.
Behavioural Guidance
Beginners
No leverage
Scale entries 84k–88k
Weekly close <80k → stop, reassess
Observers
Watch only three signals:
DXY
US 10Y yield
ETF net flows
Ignore whale headlines unless price, flows and macro break together.
The Psychological Truth of the Week
Institutions are operationally allowed
Price refuses to reward impatience
Retail feels bored and restless
Long-horizon capital grows more comfortable
Key sentence
The system is no longer asking if it can engage.
It is deciding how slowly it wants to.
Final Insight Part 1
Bitcoin holding ~92k–94k
after execution unlocks, without narrative fuel
is not weakness.
It is absorption.
If Part 1 gives you the map,
Part 2 explains why the map stays valid even when nothing happens.
PART 2 — PROFESSIONAL / ADVANCED
Execution, Transmission & Risk Engine
Week 1 · December 29, 2025 – January 04, 2026
“Structural change moves slowly because it doesn’t require belief.”
SYSTEM STATUS
╭────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╮
│ SYSTEM STATUS: NORMALISATION WINDOW │
│ Consistency: 68 % Fragility: 0.47 │
│ MPI (Macro Pressure Index): 44 / 100 │
│ Regime: Execution Live · Time Dominant │
╰────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
One sentence
This is not a liquidity week.
This is a time-dominant normalisation week.
What “Normalisation Window” Means
Bitcoin has crossed from:
“The system can touch it”
to
“The system expects it to behave”
Normalisation characteristics:
execution rails active
compliance friction reduced
balance-sheet exposure optional
macro tolerance intact
allocation still discretionary
urgency absent
That combination creates time compression, not price expansion.
Macro Transmission Engine
Bitcoin remains downstream.
Fed guidance
↓
Rates (front & long end)
↓
Bond volatility (MOVE)
↓
Credit conditions
↓
Equity risk appetite
↓
Portfolio optionality
↓
Bitcoin
As long as:
yields stay elevated
MOVE remains contained but not low
credit does not loosen materially
Bitcoin holds, it does not run.
That is maturity.
Derivatives & Volatility Engine
Current posture
OI clustered around 90k–100k
dealers likely short gamma near core
implied vol slightly above realized
skew neutral, not defensive
Effect
breakouts fade
dips get absorbed
chop punishes impatience
This is a time-based market, not a conviction market.
Structural Level Map
PRIMARY DEMAND : 82k–88k
NEGOTIATION SHELF : 88k–92k
EXECUTION RANGE : 92k–96k
ACCEPTANCE GATE : 95k–98k
BALANCE-SHEET TEST : 100k–105k
The real resistance is not 100k.
It is institutional comfort above 95k without volatility expansion.
Invalidation Conditions
All three required:
Weekly close <80k
MOVE >90
High-yield spreads widening materially
Anything less is stress, not regime failure.
Geopolitics & Sovereigns
United States
Execution clarity without stimulus.
Europe
Growth fragility → volatility contributor.
Emerging markets
Framework adoption > bans.
Nation states
Persistence > spectacle.
Geopolitics currently rewards:
optionality
redundancy
non-sovereign hedges
Bitcoin fits — slowly.
Calendar Layer — Week 1
Key influences:
Fed communication lag effects
US PCE components
Treasury auctions
year-end / new-year liquidity re-engagement
No single event dominates.
Interaction sets tone.
Week 1 Path Map
RANGE AXIS: 78k ▁▂▃▄▅▆▇██▇▆▅▄▃▂▁ 112k
Bias: neutral, time-dominant
Envelope: 82k–100k
Base ██████████░░ 58 %
Stretch █████░░░░░░ 23 %
Deep Test ████░░░░░░░ 19 %
Layer Score — System Health
Liquidity █████████░░ 72
Derivatives ████████░░░ 65
On-Chain ████████░░░ 67
ETF & Flows ██████░░░░░ 59
Macro ████████░░░ 62
Psychology ███████░░░░ 61
Systemic Risk ████░░░░░░░ 29
Composite Heat: 7.5
Fragility: 0.47
Stable.
Demanding.
MY PERSONAL READ
This week is not about price discovery.
It is about whether boredom becomes acceptable.
Last weeks proved:
Bitcoin can be executed
Bitcoin can be serviced
Bitcoin can be held without drama
This week asks something subtler:
Can Bitcoin remain allocatable
even when nothing is happening?
That is the threshold between asset and instrument.
I am not watching 100k.
I am watching whether Bitcoin remains boring above 90k.
Boredom is where institutional habit forms.
Habit is what makes allocation inevitable.
FINAL WEEKLY INSIGHT
The most important change this week is not on the price axis.
It is on the time axis.
When execution becomes boring,
allocation follows quietly.
Until then, coherence remains the advantage.
AUDIT FOOTER
╭──────────────────────────────────────────╮
│ FEED QUORUM : 5 of 5 LATENCY : <3m │
│ BRIER (30d): 0.19 ECE : 5–6 % │
│ CONSISTENCY: 62 % FRAGILITY: 0.55 │
│ SELF AUDIT : v34 Protocol STATUS: PASS │
╰──────────────────────────────────────────╯
Disclaimer
Educational research only.
No investment advice.
No fiduciary relationship.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Thank you for reading.
May your patience be stronger than volatility, and your clarity deeper than conviction.
I hope this navigation gives you clarity and orientation. If you’re ready to move beyond noise and headlines, and want to navigate multi-layer through structural & psychological currents.
Everything free to read until 01.01.2026.
Coherence is your compass
Join now. Don’t predict. Navigate. Structure thinks before reaction.
Florian Jumel
────────────────────────────────
Bitcoin Coherence Ledger | Bitcoin Regime Compass
SOURCES
Macro & Volatility
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
Investing.com — U.S. Dollar Index
https://www.investing.com/indices/us-dollar-index
U.S. 10Y Treasury Yield
FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10
Trading Economics — United States Government Bond Yield
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield
MOVE Index (ICE BofA MOVE)
FRED — Bond Market Volatility Index
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MOVE
Investing.com — MOVE Index
https://www.investing.com/indices/ice-bofa-move
VIX Index
CBOE — Volatility Index
https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/
Commodities & Cross-Asset Context
Gold Spot Price
Reuters — Commodities overview
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/
GoldPrice.org — XAU/USD reference
https://www.goldprice.org/
WTI Crude Oil
MarketWatch — Crude Oil Futures
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/cl.1
Reuters — Energy markets
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/energy/
Bitcoin Price, ETFs & Fund Flows
Bitcoin Price (Composite)
CoinDesk — Bitcoin Price Index
https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin/
U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows
Farside Investors — All Bitcoin ETF Flows
https://farside.co.uk/bitcoin-etf-flow-all-data/
Digital Asset Fund Flows
CoinShares — Weekly Digital Asset Fund Flows Reports
https://coinshares.com/research/digital-asset-fund-flows/
Derivatives & Market Structure
Bitcoin Futures & Open Interest
CME Group — Bitcoin Futures
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin.html
Coinglass — BTC Futures & Open Interest
https://www.coinglass.com/Bitcoin
Regulation & Institutional Framework
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC)
Interpretive Letters & Crypto-Related Guidance
https://www.occ.treas.gov/news-issuances/interpretations-and-actions/index-interpretations-and-actions.html
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)
Bitcoin & Crypto Commodity Classification
https://www.cftc.gov/Bitcoin/index.htm
Federal Reserve (FOMC)
Statements, Press Conferences & Calendars
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
On-Chain & Sovereign Signals
On-Chain Activity & Large Transfers
Mempool.space — Bitcoin Explorer & Fee Market
https://mempool.space/
El Salvador — Bitcoin Treasury & Policy
Bitcoin Office of El Salvador
https://bitcoin.gob.sv/
Global Policy & Monetary Context
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Digital Money & CBDC Research
https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/digital-money